Hey, what’s up! We are going to dive into another fallacy today, but first, let’s take a quick minute to review a fallacy we’ve talked about in the past, the The Tu Quoque fallacy. The Tu Quoque fallacy happens when you ignore or belittle someone’s argument on the basis that they do the thing they’re telling you not to do…or they don’t do the thing they’re telling you to do. I like to call this the “pot calling the kettle black” fallacy or the “three fingers pointing back at you” fallacy b/c it’s almost like you’re dismissing what the person says by replying, “Yeah, well what about you?” Little kids do this all the time! This fallacy is sometimes called an Appeal to Hypocrisy.
The question to ask yourself if you think you’re facing a TuQuoque fallacy is: “Does that have anything to do with the original question or argument?”
If you want to hear more about this fallacy, go back & check out Episode 17.
Ok, let’s dive into today’s fallacy: the Appeal to Possibility. The Appeal to Possibility fallacy argues that just because something is possible, it must also be a certainty.
Here’s an example: “I just know I’m going to win the $500 billion lottery this weekend, so I’ll go ahead and charge this shopping spree on my credit card.” Is it possible that I could win the lottery? Sure, I guess. But does that mean it’s certain? By no means! In fact, the chances are very, very small.
Or how about this one: “I think we have a 50% chance of a snow day tomorrow, so I’m not going to bother finishing my report…I’ll have an extra day to finish it.” Oh really? There’s a chance that school could be canceled, but does that mean it’s a certainty? Nope, it sure doesn’t.
Or how about this one: “Because we have explored so little of space, and because there are so many other planets out there, there has to be life on other planets”. Really? Is it possible? Honestly, who knows! But let’s say it is possible…that certainly doesn’t mean it’s a certainty.
Here’s what’s wrong with the thinking behind an Appeal to Possibility: A lot of times, people will make the mistake of using an appeal to probability when they are very emotionally invested in a certain outcome and they really, REALLY want it to happen, or to not happen. In fact, they’re so invested that they’re no longer thinking rationally and they’ve started to believe that what’s just a possibility is a certainty.
Ok, here’s another example of an Appeal to Probability. This is a quote that I was told & believed for years that I no longer believe: “The fact that the effort was made ensures success”. Ok, think about that. It’s saying that if you work hard enough, you’re guaranteed to have success. Is that true? Maybe. We certainly have lots of examples of people who worked hard at school or a business or sports and had success because of it. In fact, it’s usually pretty uncommon that someone will have real success without hard work! But, does hard work GUARANTEE the CERTAINTY of success? No, absolutely not! For every example of someone who worked hard and “succeeded”, I can show you 10 examples of people who also worked just as hard and didn’t succeed, didn’t make it to the NBA, didn’t graduate as the Valedictorian, didn’t hit it big in their business. There are a lot of other factors involved.
In my example, I was told this by people who benefited off my hard work…whether I succeeded or not. So is it any surprise they told me this in order to keep me working hard? It’s not. But, it’s a fallacy. Success may be possible, but it’s not a certainty.
Question to ask yourself: “Is it really certain or is it just possible?”… *repeat*
Ok, join me in the next episode when we wrap up this miniseries on Appeals by discussing the Appeal to Heaven.
Remember: When you learn HOW to think, you will no longer fall prey to those who are trying to tell you what THEY want you to think and it all starts with asking one simple question: “Is that really true?”
