Hey what’s up Thinkers! Kathy Gibbens here…
Let’s start off today by reviewing a fallacy we covered earlier this season: The Nirvana Fallacy. The Nirvana Fallacy happens when someone compares existing solutions with idealized, perfect solutions that may not even exist.
So, the question to ask yourself if you think you’re facing the Nirvana Fallacy is this: “Is it really bad just b/c it’s not perfect?”
If you want to review or hear more about this fallacy, go back & check out Episode 90.
Are you looking for a good math curriculum for your student? With CTCMath, all of your kids from K–12 can learn at their own pace with one family subscription. That's right! With a CTCMath membership, you have access to all grades and lessons, which means your children can work at whatever level is best for them. Whether your kid needs to catch up, keep up, or move ahead, with CTCMath they can finally understand math and work at their own pace. Your student starts by watching a short (~4–9 minutes), to-the-point video lesson that presents the concepts of the math lesson step by step. Because it's a video tutorial, they can stop and rewind as many times as they need to. Following each math tutorial there are interactive questions or an optional printable worksheet to test the understanding of key concepts. Answers are entered into the CTCMath automated grading system, which then stores the results in each individual student's ongoing progress report. Not sure WHY their answer is wrong? After answers have been submitted, printable, full-worked solutions become available. These show every step which should be taken to reach the correct answer, ensuring your child really understands the math concepts. CTCMath's multi-sensory approach to ensure retention plus detailed progress reports for the parents adds up to a whole lot less stress when it's math time for both parents and kids! Get all the details & even start a free trial at ctcmath.com. That’s C-T-C Math.com. And, for homeschoolers, right now you can sign up for 50% off by using the link in the show notes!
Alright, let’s dive into today’s new fallacy, the Argument to the Future fallacy. The Argument to the Future fallacy happens when someone tries to get you to accept a certain conclusion by saying that future evidence will support it, even though there’s no evidence to support it now. This fallacy is sometimes called Escape to the Future.
Let's say a student is given a book report to complete in two weeks. They argue that they don't need to start working on the report now because they will have plenty of time to finish it in the future. I’m sure none of you have EVER committed this fallacy! Lol This is an example of the argument to the future fallacy because the student is assuming that they’ll have enough time to complete the report in the future, without taking into account other possible events that could occur, such as unexpected school assignments or personal emergencies. It's important for the student to start working on the report now to ensure that they have enough time to complete it and avoid potential stress or last-minute rushing.
Another example would be someone saying that Evolution must be true because proof of missing links will surely be found someday to prove the theory of evolution to be true. Ok, really? They can’t possibly know whether someday they’ll find a missing link or not!
The problem with the thinking behind the Argument to the Future Fallacy is that, unless they’re Marty McFly from the movie, ‘Back to the Future', they don’t actually have any evidence to support their claim. They’re simply appealing to the future as proof of their claims: future research that has yet to be done, future explorations that haven’t happened yet, future discoveries that haven’t yet been found. They’re counting on anticipation and speculation to convince you, not actual data or evidence. But, the reality is, nobody knows the future for sure & we can’t be sure that any one thing will happen, be discovered or be proven in the future.
Another way this fallacy can happen is when someone is trying to get you to invest in technology or a new business or a new stock. They’ll say something like "We should invest in this new technology because it will be the future of the industry." Is that really true? May or maybe not. The reality is, nobody knows! This argument assumes that the technology in question will be successful and widely adopted in the future, without providing any evidence to support this claim. It is possible that the technology may not take off as expected or may be overtaken by other innovations…we’ve seen this sort of thing happen time after time.
Now, if someone says something like, ‘Ok, I’ve been analyzing past data and studying past trends and based off of past trends, I think XYZ has a real chance of taking off’, that’s not the same thing as an Appeal to the Future. For one, they’re basing their hypothesis off of real data and two, they’re presenting their argument in a way that admits they’re not 100% sure, but are trying to appeal to real evidence they have in hand. Hopefully you can see how it’s a little different than a true Appeal to the Future fallacy.
So, the question to ask yourself if someone is appealing to the future is really simple: “Do you have any real evidence to back up your claim?” *repeat*
Remember: When you learn HOW to think, you will no longer fall prey to those who are trying to tell you what THEY want you to think and it all starts with asking one simple question: “Is that really true?”
